Operation Warp Speed and Why It Mattered

One of the most interesting things to happen during the pandemic, and a lesson we seem not to have internalized well, is Operation Warp Speed (OWS). I would not for a second ask you to see past government, corporate, academic and health authority lies on vaccine effectiveness and side effects, nor their excusable mandates. Never trust them again. But do recognize OWS for what an achievement it was: a large-scale cross-national effort to marshal the resources of private companies at government behest, achieving in weeks and months what would otherwise have taken a decade at best (and likely would never have gotten done). OWS echoes past achievements like the Manhattan Project and the Apollo Program.

If you read about the development of the semiconductor industry (DoD, for missile guidance) or the internet (DARPA, for defense comms), innovative consumer applications are frequently a beneficial side effect of government financing. In the case of OWS, however, the actual application was the objective. 

Government entered the market as a massive buyer: "make this to our satisfaction and we will give you an insane amount of money". It acted as a facilitator, guiding timelines and goals, but leaving R&D and production to private companies. OWS heavily mitigated risk by guaranteeing large purchases regardless of efficacy. It streamlined regulatory processes, allowing "at-risk" manufacturing (trials + production run simultaneously). And it offered logistics, the scale of which could only be government-mandated or -operated given time frames. 

Ignoring the eventual failure of the product (vaccines did not reduce spread, had serious side effects, and efficacy decreased rapidly with strains), it showed that the government still has the ability to bring about significant technological and social innovation in a shorter time than the market can. 

Knowing this, and given that I am generally in favor of less government, where are innovation markets failing our future today? Where could the government make the highest return on investment and impact for its population? A few things come to mind. 

Rebuilding the European defense industry. The US is increasingly becoming a reluctant partner. Europe needs to build its own weapons, not least in recognition of land war returning to the continent. Given the changing nature of the battlefield, such weapons should yield a decisive battlefield advantage. Autonomous systems, cheap and fast to produce, are probably top of this list, but offensive/defensive cybersecurity isn't far behind. How much is the security of your country worth? €1 billion for each company sounds like a good start.

Ensuring AI sovereignty. If you follow the machinations of Google and Microsoft/OpenAI around regulating AI ("we are building something insanely powerful but also very unsafe, so don't let anyone else do it at scale"), it is clear that Europe, much less than precautionary AI regulation, needs more than just Mistral, Aleph Alpha, et al. Billions should be flowing into these companies coffers from public funds in order to produce applications that put the end user in full control. Bonus effect: you could probably decrease EU and national bureaucracy by 80%+ using AI. 

Nuclear energy. Renewables are well researched, but the West is falling behind in nuclear energy capability. America can build a reactor for $12 billion (and endless amounts of red tape), while China is selling them to Africa for $2B (zero downpayment of course, we already own your port). Nuclear is the very best climate mitigation technology we have and prosperity comes down to kWh per capita, especially given the need for both AI and AC.

Antibiotic Resistance, Superbugs, Prions, etc. There are increasing biological threats that look high-risk. Where's the research prize for solving them? €1 billion? Probably too low. 

Supply chain security. Europe's ships are increasingly threatened at sea, avoiding Suez. This will only get worse if the US withdraws from its role in policing the seas. The new merchant marine would need to equip tankers with cutting-edge anti-missile and terrorism defense. Equally, North Sea oil platforms are at risk from unmanned submarines. Remember Nord Stream 2? Let's not have that again. There are a myriad of small issues here because Europe is import-dependent in a variety of ways. I'd probably put lab-grown meat into this category as well. 

Alright, that's enough for me. Remember, I actually don't like big government at all. I just want their money to build useful stuff.